tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 12:25, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 500 United Flight history → IND 07:45 SFO 09:27 17% 4% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 6210 · flown by Mesa 2h 28m Dulles IAD 09:47 → SFO 12:34UA 1773 9h 59m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 09m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 1h 16m Dulles IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 8h 44m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → IND 07:11 → JFK 09:30AA 4631 · flown by Republic 1h 42m New York JFK 11:12 → SFO 14:21AA 149 10h 10m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic 3h 20m Dulles IAD 15:15 → SFO 18:02UA 2862 10h 51m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic 1h 10m Chicago ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 7h 19m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10DL 5631 · flown by Republic 1h 55m Boston BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860 10h 49m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 38m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IND 16:57 → ATL 18:37DL 3134 48m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → SFO 21:24DL 495 7h 27m 72% 46%
AmericanDetails → IND 11:15 → DFW 12:31AA 1506 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:17 → SFO 15:07AA 2325 6h 52m 74% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON