Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2197 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 2197 ISP 05:32 → MCO 08:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 547 ISP 16:26 → MCO 19:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2197 Southwest	ISP 05:32	MCO 08:15	5%	2%	4.8%	no record
WN 1148 Southwest	ISP 16:45	MCO 19:41	16%	7%	1.6%	no record
F9 2149 Frontier Flight history →	ISP 17:45	MCO 20:36	18%	11%	3.4%	77%
B6 547 JetBlue Flight history →	ISP 16:26	MCO 19:17	23%	12%	2.2%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON