Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2201 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2201 ITO 07:56 → HNL 09:14 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1081 ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2201 Southwest	ITO 07:56	HNL 09:14	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2200 Southwest	ITO 05:56	HNL 07:14	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2202 Southwest	ITO 11:36	HNL 12:54	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1001 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 06:00	HNL 06:54	7%	2%	1.2%	93%
WN 2203 Southwest	ITO 15:19	HNL 16:29	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2204 Southwest	ITO 18:49	HNL 19:59	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1011 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 07:35	HNL 08:29	10%	2%	1.2%	91%
AS 1121 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 19:29	HNL 20:34	17%	5%	1.0%	75%
AS 1021 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 09:26	HNL 10:20	18%	4%	1.1%	89%
AS 1131 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 20:39	HNL 21:44	18%	6%	0.9%	57%
AS 1061 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 14:59	HNL 15:55	19%	5%	1.1%	80%
AS 1041 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 12:37	HNL 13:42	19%	5%	1.0%	78%
AS 1101 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 18:16	HNL 19:21	20%	5%	1.1%	77%
AS 1031 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 11:27	HNL 12:22	21%	4%	1.1%	75%
AS 1071 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 15:45	HNL 16:39	21%	5%	1.1%	74%
AS 1051 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 13:59	HNL 14:54	21%	7%	1.1%	70%
AS 1081 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 16:47	HNL 17:40	26%	8%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON