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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 1019 at 08:30, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1019 Alaska Flight history → ITO 08:30 OGG 09:10 10% 3% 0.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ITO 06:00 → HNL 06:54AS 1001 2h 22m Honolulu HNL 09:16 → OGG 10:06AS 1056 4h 06m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 07:35 → HNL 08:29AS 1011 2h 30m Honolulu HNL 10:59 → OGG 11:41AS 1076 4h 06m 100% 81%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40AS 1081 3h 20m Honolulu HNL 21:00 → OGG 21:50AS 1206 5h 03m 100% 79%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 15:45 → HNL 16:39AS 1071 2h 51m Honolulu HNL 19:30 → OGG 20:20AS 1196 4h 35m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 12:37 → HNL 13:42AS 1041 4h 00m Honolulu HNL 17:42 → OGG 18:23AS 1176 5h 46m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 11:27 → HNL 12:22AS 1031 3h 37m Honolulu HNL 15:59 → OGG 16:48AS 1436 5h 21m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 09:26 → HNL 10:20AS 1021 2h 10m Honolulu HNL 12:30 → OGG 13:20AS 1096 3h 54m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ITO 07:35 → HNL 08:29AS 1011 47m Honolulu HNL 09:16 → OGG 10:06AS 1056 2h 31m 60% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON