tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1511 at 08:16, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1511 United JAC 08:16 EWR 14:35 30% 16% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 1h 23m Denver DEN 10:03 → EWR 15:59UA 2381 6h 59m 91% 71%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 17:40 → EWR 23:54DL 2038 8h 39m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 32m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 8h 02m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Denver DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715 8h 54m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → EWR 17:41DL 2033 8h 01m 100% 65%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:06 → LAX 09:28UA 1431 3h 57m Los Angeles LAX 13:25 → EWR 21:43UA 1855 11h 37m 91% 62%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40UA 2032 3h 37m Chicago ORD 15:17 → EWR 18:29UA 1236 8h 59m 96% 60%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:46 → DFW 15:31AA 3052 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:21 → EWR 23:02AA 618 9h 16m 93% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:06 → LAX 09:28UA 1431 52m Los Angeles LAX 10:20 → EWR 19:04UA 2127 8h 58m 58% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON