tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 6h 00m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 3h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → MSP 20:58DL 2935 6h 43m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Denver DEN 13:50 → MSP 16:54UA 732 5h 19m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 37m Denver DEN 17:55 → MSP 21:00UA 2076 6h 18m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397 4h 40m 86% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40UA 2032 2h 27m Chicago ORD 14:07 → MSP 15:33UA 2298 7h 03m 90% 65%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:46 → DFW 15:31AA 3052 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806 8h 35m 97% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON