Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2032 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2032 JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1449 JAC 13:47 → ORD 18:01 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2032 United Flight history →	JAC 07:30	ORD 11:40	21%	9%	1.0%	84%
UA 2458 United	JAC 12:25	ORD 16:15	26%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 1448 American	JAC 15:40	ORD 20:01	31%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 1449 American	JAC 13:47	ORD 18:01	36%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON