Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	6h 09m	100%	82%
United Details →	JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Denver	DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013	8h 24m	100%	74%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	2h 45m Denver	DEN 11:25 → SEA 13:24UA 2058	7h 24m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282	2h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	6h 18m	97%	71%
United Details →	JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717	3h 49m Denver	DEN 19:07 → SEA 20:56UA 2767	8h 14m	99%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON