tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 5850 at 19:16, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5850 SkyWest JAC 19:16 SFO 20:36 30% 12% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902 5h 27m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 04m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → JAC 13:57 → LAX 15:29AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest 2h 02m Los Angeles LAX 17:31 → SFO 19:08AA 3138 6h 11m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:30UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 7h 55m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:06 → LAX 09:28UA 1431 3h 56m Los Angeles LAX 13:24 → SFO 14:58UA 469 7h 52m 91% 69%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 36m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 6h 58m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791 3h 13m Denver DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389 7h 36m 95% 62%
DeltaDetails → JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823 9h 56m 86% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAC 10:58 → CLT 16:55AA 1049 53m Charlotte CLT 17:48 → SFO 20:14AA 2410 10h 16m 68% 44%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:46 → DFW 15:31AA 3052 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:17 → SFO 17:59AA 2810 7h 13m 64% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON