Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2722 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2722 JAX 06:00 → ATL 07:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1549 JAX 23:23 → ATL 00:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2722 Delta Flight history →	JAX 06:00	ATL 07:14	6%	2%	1.0%	93%
DL 2328 Delta Flight history →	JAX 09:52	ATL 11:08	9%	4%	0.9%	91%
DL 2450 Delta Flight history →	JAX 07:05	ATL 08:23	10%	3%	1.0%	92%
DL 2569 Delta Flight history →	JAX 08:17	ATL 09:34	10%	3%	0.9%	91%
DL 3024 Delta Flight history →	JAX 14:35	ATL 15:52	16%	5%	0.9%	82%
DL 2923 Delta Flight history →	JAX 13:05	ATL 14:15	18%	5%	0.8%	85%
DL 2990 Delta Flight history →	JAX 16:24	ATL 17:40	22%	6%	2.5%	80%
DL 2440 Delta Flight history →	JAX 19:00	ATL 20:18	22%	8%	2.6%	94%worse than usual
DL 2720 Delta Flight history →	JAX 17:40	ATL 19:00	24%	8%	3.5%	79%
F9 1549 Frontier Flight history →	JAX 23:23	ATL 00:40	30%	14%	1.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON