Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2208 at 14:22, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2208 Southwest	JAX 14:22	AUS 16:19	20%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 06:00 → ATL 07:14DL 2722	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	7h 25m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:52 → ATL 11:08DL 2328	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	6h 58m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104	6h 34m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333	1h 38m Detroit	DTW 15:46 → AUS 18:04DL 1612	7h 17m	96%	79%
United Details →	JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453	3h 48m Houston	IAH 12:17 → AUS 13:24UA 1859	7h 19m	97%	79%
United Details →	JAX 16:23 → IAH 17:58UA 4047 · flown by Mesa	3h 48m Houston	IAH 21:46 → AUS 22:44UA 1179	7h 21m	100%	77%
United Details →	JAX 09:20 → IAH 10:54UA 6224 · flown by Mesa	3h 26m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	7h 09m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491	6h 45m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JAX 17:40 → ATL 19:00DL 2720	55m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → AUS 21:18DL 1170	4h 38m	73%	53%
American Details →	JAX 18:22 → ORD 20:12AA 3486 · flown by Envoy	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59AA 935	6h 37m	73%	45%
American Details →	JAX 12:03 → DFW 13:47AA 1061	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:38 → AUS 15:50AA 2103	4h 47m	59%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON