Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5632 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 5632 JAX 07:15 → BOS 10:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 810 JAX 20:55 → BOS 23:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5632 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 07:15	BOS 10:04	7%	3%	1.0%	92%
DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 13:26	BOS 16:11	16%	6%	1.0%	77%
B6 1310 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 12:24	BOS 15:15	28%	13%	1.6%	73%
B6 810 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 20:55	BOS 23:37	30%	18%	2.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON