Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 671 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 671 JAX 08:09 → DEN 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4749 JAX 15:12 → DEN 17:13 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 671 United Flight history →	JAX 08:09	DEN 09:55	7%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 2014 United	JAX 14:57	DEN 17:03	14%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 4749 Southwest	JAX 15:12	DEN 17:13	21%	7%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JAX 14:35 → ATL 15:52DL 3024	51m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	5h 21m	79%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON