Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2333 at 11:47, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2333 Delta Flight history →	JAX 11:47	DTW 14:08	9%	4%	0.9%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 07:05 → ATL 08:23DL 2450	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → DTW 11:40DL 8861	4h 35m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 06:00 → ATL 07:14DL 2722	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:26 → DTW 10:24DL 643	4h 24m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 15:08 → MSP 17:13DL 2392	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 19:46 → DTW 22:32DL 1484	7h 24m	98%	84%
United Details →	JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453	1h 16m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	6h 37m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:52 → ATL 11:08DL 2328	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → DTW 16:06DL 1031	6h 14m	100%	83%
American Details →	JAX 06:34 → ORD 08:20AA 764	1h 39m Chicago	ORD 09:59 → DTW 12:29AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	5h 55m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:15 → BOS 10:04DL 5632 · flown by Republic	3h 05m Boston	BOS 13:09 → DTW 15:20DL 2222	8h 05m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:05 → JFK 09:29DL 4959 · flown by Endeavor	3h 36m New York	JFK 13:05 → DTW 15:00DL 1654	7h 55m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON