Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1793 at 05:25, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1793 Southwest	JAX 05:25	HOU 06:45	3%	1%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 06:00 → ATL 07:14DL 2722	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → HOU 09:34DL 1509	4h 34m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:24 → ATL 17:40DL 2990	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 27m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	57m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	4h 17m	79%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON