Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1434 United Flight history →	JAX 11:52	IAD 13:48	7%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 1938 United Flight history →	JAX 12:32	IAD 14:35	8%	5%	0.9%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135	6h 09m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	JAX 06:00 → ATL 07:14DL 2722	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → IAD 10:00DL 1324	4h 00m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 14:35 → ATL 15:52DL 3024	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	5h 48m	98%	81%
United Details →	JAX 16:23 → IAH 17:58UA 4047 · flown by Mesa	2h 12m Houston	IAH 20:10 → IAD 00:02 +1UA 1968	7h 39m	97%	78%
United Details →	JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa	1h 44m Houston	IAH 14:55 → IAD 18:41UA 1178	7h 04m	96%	77%
United Details →	JAX 09:32 → ORD 11:15UA 1239	1h 50m Chicago	ORD 13:05 → IAD 16:07UA 1128	6h 35m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	JAX 17:40 → ATL 19:00DL 2720	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 01m	98%	77%
American Details →	JAX 12:58 → CLT 14:26AA 1925	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA	4h 49m	94%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JAX 16:24 → ATL 17:40DL 2990	51m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	3h 59m	72%	58%
United Details →	JAX 16:55 → ORD 18:48UA 2211	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:48 → IAD 22:33UA 304	5h 38m	67%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON