Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:08, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 15:08 → MSP 17:13DL 2392	2h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 20:00 → LGA 23:44DL 2733	8h 36m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 06:00 → ATL 07:14DL 2722	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513	4h 41m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:15 → BOS 10:04DL 5632 · flown by Republic	2h 55m Boston	BOS 12:59 → LGA 14:39DL 5854 · flown by Republic	7h 24m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:05 → ATL 08:23DL 2450	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 37m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 33m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:52 → ATL 11:08DL 2328	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	5h 58m	98%	82%
American Details →	JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834	1h 35m Charlotte	CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150	4h 57m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:24 → ATL 17:40DL 2990	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	7h 00m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	JAX 07:06 → FLL 08:38B6 17	55m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 09:33 → LGA 12:27B6 872	5h 21m	68%	52%
American Details →	JAX 12:03 → DFW 13:47AA 1061	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:58 → LGA 19:37AA 2434	7h 34m	75%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON