Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1794 at 16:52, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1794 Southwest	JAX 16:52	MDW 18:25	19%	5%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 06:00 → ATL 07:14DL 2722	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 42m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:52 → ATL 11:08DL 2328	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	6h 38m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:24 → ATL 17:40DL 2990	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 51m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333	3h 59m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	7h 42m	99%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JAX 19:00 → ATL 20:18DL 2440	57m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	4h 15m	72%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON