Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2711 at 07:43 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 2711 JAX 07:43 → MIA 09:13 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest MQ 3342 JAX 15:49 → MIA 17:15 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2711 American Flight history →	JAX 07:43	MIA 09:13	17%	6%	1.2%	93%worse than usual
MQ 4024 Envoy	JAX 10:01	MIA 11:29	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
YX 4682 Republic	JAX 19:29	MIA 21:08	32%	13%	1.7%	no record
MQ 3342 Envoy	JAX 15:49	MIA 17:15	40%	14%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON