Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2392 at 15:08, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2392 Delta Flight history →	JAX 15:08	MSP 17:13	17%	5%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 07:15 → BOS 10:04DL 5632 · flown by Republic	1h 48m Boston	BOS 11:52 → MSP 14:04DL 1103	7h 49m	97%	86%
United Details →	JAX 08:09 → DEN 09:55UA 671	3h 55m Denver	DEN 13:50 → MSP 16:54UA 732	9h 45m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:05 → ATL 08:23DL 2450	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	7h 45m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 06:00 → ATL 07:14DL 2722	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 31m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 06:59 → JFK 09:20DL 4959 · flown by Endeavor	2h 15m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 51m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:52 → ATL 11:08DL 2328	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	7h 15m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 17:40 → ATL 19:00DL 2720	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 59m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	JAX 14:35 → ATL 15:52DL 3024	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46DL 2654	7h 11m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	JAX 16:55 → ORD 18:48UA 2211	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	5h 46m	73%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON