Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 3547 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day YX 3547 JAX 07:19 → ORD 09:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2211 JAX 16:55 → ORD 18:48 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3547 Republic	JAX 07:19	ORD 09:20	12%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 764 American Flight history →	JAX 06:34	ORD 08:20	14%	4%	1.4%	81%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	JAX 09:32	ORD 11:15	17%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 18:22	ORD 20:12	27%	7%	1.4%	86%worse than usual
OO 5401 SkyWest	JAX 12:44	ORD 14:29	33%	11%	1.7%	no record
UA 2211 United Flight history →	JAX 16:55	ORD 18:48	33%	10%	1.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON