Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1819 JAX 07:01 → PHL 09:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5060 JAX 15:54 → PHL 18:23 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1819 American	JAX 07:01	PHL 09:24	9%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 709 American Flight history →	JAX 09:47	PHL 12:10	11%	4%	1.0%	91%
YX 4680 Republic	JAX 18:43	PHL 21:15	12%	5%	1.5%	no record
OH 5060 PSA	JAX 15:54	PHL 18:23	18%	8%	3.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON