tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:05 → ATL 08:23DL 2450 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 8h 11m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 01m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333 3h 03m Detroit DTW 17:11 → PHX 18:15DL 1135 9h 28m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → JAX 09:20 → IAH 10:54UA 6224 · flown by Mesa 3h 21m Houston IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:04UA 1798 8h 44m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → JAX 08:09 → DEN 09:55UA 671 3h 23m Denver DEN 13:18 → PHX 14:12UA 631 9h 03m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → JAX 12:32 → IAD 14:35UA 1938 3h 15m Dulles IAD 17:50 → PHX 19:46UA 1938 10h 14m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834 3h 52m Charlotte CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 9h 38m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa 3h 41m Houston IAH 16:52 → PHX 17:51UA 1478 9h 14m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON