tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:05 → ATL 08:23DL 2450 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 6h 27m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa 1h 52m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 9h 01m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → JAX 06:00 → ATL 07:14DL 2722 55m Atlanta ATL 08:09 → SJU 11:52DL 1930 5h 52m 92% 79%
DeltaDetails → JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 22m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → JAX 14:35 → ATL 15:52DL 3024 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 7h 54m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453 1h 34m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 8h 37m 95% 72%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834 3h 18m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 32m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → JAX 07:43 → MIA 09:13AA 2711 3h 50m Miami MIA 13:03 → SJU 15:50AA 967 8h 07m 97% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON