tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2221 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2221 Southwest JAX 06:32 STL 07:55 3% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 4299 Southwest JAX 12:08 STL 13:22 13% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 15:08 → MSP 17:13DL 2392 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 7h 55m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → JAX 06:00 → ATL 07:14DL 2722 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → STL 09:06DL 1400 4h 06m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:05 → ATL 08:23DL 2450 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566 6h 25m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → JAX 09:52 → ATL 11:08DL 2328 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700 5h 35m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 4h 34m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAX 16:23 → IAH 17:58UA 4047 · flown by Mesa 2h 07m Houston IAH 20:05 → STL 22:07UA 1528 6h 44m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → JAX 17:40 → ATL 19:00DL 2720 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → STL 23:20DL 1403 6h 40m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAX 09:32 → ORD 11:15UA 1239 3h 05m Chicago ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000 7h 14m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAX 12:03 → DFW 13:47AA 1061 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:54 → STL 16:49AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 5h 46m 73% 58%
DeltaDetails → JAX 17:40 → ATL 19:00DL 2720 54m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833 3h 57m 72% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON