tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416 14h 08m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 10:28 → PDX 13:22AS 19 1h 09m Portland PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:35AS 1406 11h 07m 90% 74%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699 3h 26m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 13h 25m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719 2h 45m Seattle SEA 17:35 → ANC 20:23DL 2367 12h 53m 96% 72%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23 2h 42m Seattle SEA 19:01 → ANC 21:45AS 582 12h 45m 97% 69%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31 2h 41m Seattle SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:34 +1AS 703 13h 05m 94% 68%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:29 → SEA 19:59DL 740 1h 21m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 11h 29m 87% 65%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 2h 59m Seattle SEA 13:15 → ANC 15:57AS 1381 12h 57m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31 46m Seattle SEA 20:55 → ANC 23:40AS 711 11h 11m 48% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON