Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2286 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2286 JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 419 JFK 15:30 → ATL 18:02 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2286 Delta Flight history →	JFK 06:00	ATL 08:29	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2227 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:40	ATL 11:23	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 1029 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:10	ATL 13:43	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2342 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:35	ATL 16:19	15%	5%	0.6%	88%
DL 1480 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:41	ATL 18:34	20%	7%	1.7%	76%
DL 962 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	ATL 22:11	21%	8%	1.4%	80%
F9 4731 Frontier Flight history →	JFK 13:00	ATL 15:50	24%	8%	1.3%	67%
B6 119 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:40	ATL 13:09	29%	7%	1.0%	61%
DL 2293 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:50	ATL 20:13	31%	9%	1.7%	78%
B6 719 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	ATL 23:45	41%	15%	0.9%	63%
B6 419 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:30	ATL 18:02	44%	14%	2.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON