Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1406 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1406 JFK 07:07 → AUS 10:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2772 JFK 19:06 → AUS 22:03 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1406 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:07	AUS 10:04	9%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 810 American	JFK 07:39	AUS 10:33	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 1643 Delta Flight history →	JFK 12:50	AUS 15:56	15%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 1233 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:40	AUS 20:53	19%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 2303 American	JFK 12:37	AUS 15:32	20%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2772 American Flight history →	JFK 19:06	AUS 22:03	28%	8%	1.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON