Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 5151 at 13:59, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5151 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 13:59	BGR 15:45	12%	5%	1.5%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → BGR 13:35DL 2350	7h 35m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:54 → DTW 10:52DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	3h 08m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → BGR 16:04DL 3003	7h 10m	98%	84%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 10:39 → BGR 13:15AA 1874	7h 16m	97%	84%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	3h 58m Charlotte	CLT 14:05 → BGR 16:45AA 1411	8h 46m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON