Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4364 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–49%.

Safest bet that day YX 4364 JFK 08:40 → BOS 10:02 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 618 JFK 17:35 → BOS 18:48 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4364 Republic	JFK 08:40	BOS 10:02	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 5733 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 09:50	BOS 11:18	9%	3%	0.9%	86%
B6 2718 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:30	BOS 08:45	14%	4%	1.0%	89%
B6 1018 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:00	BOS 11:33	15%	5%	0.8%	84%
DL 5595 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:30	BOS 16:08	18%	7%	1.0%	79%
AA 4397 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:40	BOS 16:51	23%	7%	0.8%	63%
AA 4659 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:55	BOS 23:08	23%	7%	1.0%	79%
DL 2639 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:00	BOS 22:43	24%	9%	0.7%	71%
DL 5798 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 17:30	BOS 19:16	24%	11%	1.0%	63%
B6 1318 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:29	BOS 23:59	34%	15%	1.0%	65%
B6 1118 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:06	BOS 16:19	40%	15%	0.9%	63%
B6 818 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:19	BOS 20:32	44%	18%	1.1%	69%worse than usual
B6 618 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:35	BOS 18:48	49%	20%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON