tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711 7h 07m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 10:34 → BWI 14:03DL 2357 6h 48m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799 7h 09m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:10 → ATL 13:43DL 1029 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → BWI 17:45DL 1267 6h 35m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:35 → ATL 16:19DL 2342 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 7h 51m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444 2h 26m Charlotte CLT 12:33 → BWI 14:06AA 2733 6h 07m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:50 → DTW 18:47DL 2443 1h 09m Detroit DTW 19:56 → BWI 21:36DL 2715 4h 46m 85% 74%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 52m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 4h 32m 83% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON