Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → BZN 12:35DL 2946	7h 20m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:18 → BZN 13:20DL 406	9h 20m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	1h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	8h 00m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	9h 45m	98%	82%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:21 → BZN 15:35AA 947	9h 20m	95%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON