Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 12:47 → DAL 13:50DL 512	6h 10m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:10 → ATL 13:43DL 1029	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	7h 44m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 44m	94%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 17:50 → ATL 20:13DL 2293	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 35m	71%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON