Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4671 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 4671 JFK 06:30 → DCA 07:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:30	DCA 07:54	6%	2%	1.0%	67%
YX 4586 Republic	JFK 08:40	DCA 10:06	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
B6 8501 JetBlue	JFK 05:59	DCA 07:25	10%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:46	DCA 10:01	12%	3%	1.1%	60%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:05	DCA 16:41	16%	5%	1.1%	81%
DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:20	DCA 22:59	18%	6%	1.5%	68%
YX 4463 Republic	JFK 21:20	DCA 22:47	19%	6%	1.4%	no record
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:30	DCA 22:59	38%	15%	1.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON