Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2234 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2234 JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 606 JFK 18:43 → DFW 21:26 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2234 American Flight history →	JFK 08:15	DFW 11:11	12%	4%	1.2%	85%
AA 1010 American	JFK 09:10	DFW 11:44	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 9833 American	JFK 09:04	DFW 11:30	16%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1880 American	JFK 11:38	DFW 14:10	17%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1953 American Flight history →	JFK 14:42	DFW 17:44	26%	9%	2.5%	69%
DL 496 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:55	DFW 21:07	31%	15%	6.8%	71%
AA 606 American Flight history →	JFK 18:43	DFW 21:26	36%	17%	11.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON