Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1654 at 13:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 1654 JFK 13:05 → DTW 15:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 820 JFK 21:45 → DTW 23:59 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1654 Delta	JFK 13:05	DTW 15:00	13%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 1253 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:30	DTW 22:04	18%	7%	0.9%	71%
DL 2443 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:50	DTW 18:47	18%	6%	0.8%	83%
B6 920 JetBlue	JFK 15:02	DTW 16:58	30%	9%	1.0%	no record
B6 820 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:45	DTW 23:59	35%	10%	1.2%	63%
DL 5080 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:15	DTW 09:25	13%	5%	3.0%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON