Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 1 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–43%.

Safest bet that day B6 1 JFK 06:00 → FLL 09:00 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 1801 JFK 18:16 → FLL 21:18 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	FLL 09:00	17%	4%	4.8%	85%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:48	FLL 12:31	24%	4%	5.3%	88%worse than usual
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	JFK 12:41	FLL 15:33	24%	5%	1.7%	80%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:11	FLL 20:10	26%	8%	2.3%	75%
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:16	FLL 11:14	31%	7%	3.7%	87%worse than usual
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:30	FLL 15:40	33%	11%	2.7%	68%
B6 1201 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:41	FLL 19:49	37%	13%	3.8%	77%worse than usual
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:16	FLL 21:18	43%	14%	3.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON