Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 10:30	HNL 15:21	16%	5%	0.7%	77%
AS 829 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 08:55	HNL 13:49	29%	6%	1.5%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 20m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 09:25 → LAX 12:16DL 773	1h 39m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	13h 18m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:23 → SLC 10:31DL 892	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	12h 56m	93%	76%
American Details →	JFK 09:00 → LAX 11:58AA 1	2h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 14:55 → HNL 17:51AA 143	14h 51m	95%	75%
American Details →	JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:58AA 3	3h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 17:54 → HNL 20:41AA 297	15h 41m	96%	75%
American Details →	JFK 07:29 → PHX 09:37AA 2369	1h 08m Phoenix	PHX 10:45 → HNL 14:38AA 693	13h 09m	85%	68%
Delta Details →	JFK 12:06 → SEA 15:15DL 1719	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 16:30 → HNL 19:36DL 419	13h 30m	91%	66%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:32 → HNL 16:37AA 115	14h 22m	95%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 15:00 → LAX 17:45DL 771	52m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	12h 22m	73%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON