Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: B6 1381 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:07	IAH 10:53	21%	7%	0.9%	66%
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	IAH 17:19	34%	14%	1.0%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 11:05 → IAH 13:58DL 2673	7h 43m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	8h 33m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	3h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514	11h 36m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	3h 06m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → IAH 14:30DL 1307	8h 15m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:35 → ATL 16:19DL 2342	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327	7h 29m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:10 → ATL 13:43DL 1029	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAH 16:39DL 1223	6h 29m	94%	75%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 12:44 → IAH 14:27AA 398	7h 28m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:50 → DTW 18:47DL 2443	1h 38m Detroit	DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633	6h 34m	90%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	6h 12m	68%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON