Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 411 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day B6 411 JFK 06:40 → LAS 09:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1411 JFK 21:42 → LAS 00:27 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 411 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:40	LAS 09:11	9%	2%	1.0%	94%
DL 607 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAS 09:27	11%	2%	0.8%	85%
DL 807 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	LAS 14:01	13%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 1473 American	JFK 08:11	LAS 10:44	16%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 806 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:07	LAS 17:24	20%	8%	1.2%	82%
DL 568 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	LAS 22:20	21%	9%	1.1%	71%
B6 211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:14	LAS 14:57	23%	6%	1.3%	86%
AA 2536 American	JFK 13:38	LAS 16:12	25%	7%	1.7%	no record
AA 2440 American	JFK 18:17	LAS 20:54	30%	9%	1.3%	no record
B6 1411 JetBlue	JFK 21:42	LAS 00:27	32%	10%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 18:15 → MSP 20:24DL 2245	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 21:42 → LAS 23:07DL 1442	7h 52m	88%	73%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:22 → SLC 10:30DL 892	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659	7h 39m	93%	73%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:35 → LAS 16:02DL 1672	7h 48m	91%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON