Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 171 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 171 JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 923 JFK 21:40 → LAX 00:51 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 171 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 09:01	9%	2%	1.0%	89%
DL 742 Delta Flight history →	JFK 06:53	LAX 09:38	9%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 773 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:54	13%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 1905 Delta	JFK 11:08	LAX 13:51	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 33 American Flight history →	JFK 07:05	LAX 10:07	13%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 1 American Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:58	14%	3%	1.1%	87%
AA 3 American Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAX 13:58	14%	3%	0.9%	85%
AA 9831 American	JFK 08:14	LAX 10:56	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 771 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:59	LAX 17:44	15%	6%	0.7%	78%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:01	LAX 10:57	16%	4%	0.9%	83%
AA 255 American Flight history →	JFK 14:40	LAX 17:48	18%	5%	0.9%	81%
AA 341 American Flight history →	JFK 15:40	LAX 18:48	19%	5%	0.9%	77%
DL 707 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:05	LAX 20:20	20%	6%	0.7%	75%
DL 752 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:20	LAX 23:37	20%	6%	0.7%	73%
DL 738 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:01	LAX 20:53	22%	6%	0.7%	77%
AA 117 American Flight history →	JFK 20:00	LAX 23:24	22%	6%	0.9%	74%
AA 306 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAX 20:19	22%	5%	0.9%	83%
DL 1915 Delta	JFK 18:54	LAX 21:43	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 300 American Flight history →	JFK 21:30	LAX 00:54	24%	6%	1.0%	73%
AA 302 American Flight history →	JFK 18:10	LAX 21:28	24%	6%	0.9%	76%
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:36	LAX 19:26	25%	7%	0.9%	74%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:29	LAX 22:46	29%	11%	1.0%	54%
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:40	LAX 00:51	30%	11%	0.9%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 08:25 → DEN 10:54DL 532	1h 29m Denver	DEN 12:23 → LAX 13:50DL 2148	8h 25m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	8h 32m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:30 → PHX 10:49DL 791	1h 07m Phoenix	PHX 11:56 → LAX 13:28DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest	7h 58m	91%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON