Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 13:00, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 18:14 → LGB 20:51AS 1310	10h 51m	95%	68%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 11:22 → LGB 13:57AS 717	9h 57m	77%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON