Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 16:50, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5408 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:38	MCI 18:10	31%	10%	4.6%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747	7h 12m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → MCI 13:23DL 2741	7h 08m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 15:19 → MCI 16:55DL 1774	6h 20m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660	8h 49m	99%	81%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 26m Charlotte	CLT 12:33 → MCI 14:01AA 3233	7h 02m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:54DL 3023	7h 13m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:35 → ATL 16:19DL 2342	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 19:45 → MCI 20:56DL 1130	8h 21m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:50 → ATL 20:13DL 2293	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911	7h 08m	92%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON