Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2049 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2049 JFK 07:05 → MCO 09:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 483 JFK 15:00 → MCO 17:47 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	10%	3%	4.0%	84%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	15%	3%	10.4%	78%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:05	MCO 15:53	19%	6%	1.6%	76%
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:42	MCO 10:28	19%	6%	4.9%	75%
B6 183 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:09	MCO 12:55	21%	6%	11.9%	81%
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:15	MCO 15:10	23%	9%	2.1%	69%
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:17	MCO 19:56	25%	8%	1.5%	67%
B6 283 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:55	MCO 22:08	32%	17%	2.3%	62%
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:00	MCO 17:47	34%	14%	2.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON