tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417 5h 42m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728 7h 50m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 3h 02m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 6h 31m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 7h 34m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 2h 48m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 7h 42m 98% 58%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 2h 05m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 6h 54m 96% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JFK 17:50 → ATL 20:13DL 2293 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 5h 25m 71% 56%
FrontierDetails → JFK 13:00 → ATL 15:50F9 4731 47m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MDW 18:02F9 2779 6h 02m 66% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON