Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 655 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 655 JFK 05:55 → MIA 09:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2603 JFK 18:06 → MIA 21:03 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 655 American Flight history →	JFK 05:55	MIA 09:12	11%	2%	1.3%	95%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MIA 10:24	14%	3%	1.1%	86%
AA 2017 American Flight history →	JFK 07:30	MIA 10:45	20%	3%	1.3%	85%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:08	MIA 14:22	24%	5%	1.0%	78%
AA 1922 American	JFK 21:19	MIA 00:23	29%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 1174 American Flight history →	JFK 18:50	MIA 22:22	30%	9%	1.5%	74%
AA 688 American Flight history →	JFK 11:08	MIA 14:10	30%	6%	1.2%	76%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:41	MIA 19:43	32%	9%	1.1%	72%
AA 642 American	JFK 14:41	MIA 17:40	38%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 2228 American	JFK 16:10	MIA 19:17	39%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 2603 American Flight history →	JFK 18:06	MIA 21:03	41%	9%	1.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON