Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 11:14, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	8h 07m	83%	74%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807	3h 23m Las Vegas	LAS 17:24 → OAK 19:01DL 8895	10h 31m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	JFK 11:30 → SAN 14:27AS 35	2h 28m San Diego	SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	10h 03m	97%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON