Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:22, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 355 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:49	ONT 21:59	30%	11%	0.8%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	JFK 10:28 → PDX 13:22AS 19	1h 08m Portland	PDX 14:30 → ONT 16:52AS 2093 · flown by Horizon	9h 24m	90%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:22 → SLC 10:30DL 892	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173	8h 00m	86%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	52m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 38m	90%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:56 → SLC 20:26DL 887	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:35 → ONT 22:23DL 1614	8h 27m	87%	75%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 28m Phoenix	PHX 10:46 → ONT 12:12AA 2661	8h 10m	90%	74%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:10 → ATL 13:43DL 1029	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	10h 20m	98%	73%
American Details →	JFK 12:29 → PHX 14:43AA 2829	2h 17m Phoenix	PHX 17:00 → ONT 18:26AA 1666	8h 57m	97%	71%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635	8h 19m	91%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 13:35 → ATL 16:19DL 2342	46m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	7h 55m	71%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON