Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 905 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–36%.

Safest bet that day B6 905 JFK 07:05 → ORD 08:51 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 405 JFK 20:28 → ORD 22:08 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 905 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:05	ORD 08:51	14%	5%	1.1%	90%
AA 3221 American	JFK 07:05	ORD 08:42	15%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 788 American	JFK 10:42	ORD 12:05	22%	7%	1.4%	no record
YX 5599 Republic	JFK 19:32	ORD 21:13	23%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 4489 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 19:11	ORD 20:56	23%	7%	1.2%	82%
AA 2909 American	JFK 15:06	ORD 16:45	29%	8%	2.1%	no record
B6 405 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:28	ORD 22:08	36%	13%	1.6%	65%
DL 5119 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 10:30	ORD 12:20	14%	3%	7.0%	86%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:00	ORD 17:11	26%	14%	23.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON