Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1574 JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 684 JFK 17:59 → PDX 21:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1574 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	PDX 11:36	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
AS 19 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 10:28	PDX 13:22	14%	3%	0.9%	75%
DL 684 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:59	PDX 21:13	16%	6%	0.7%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 10:51 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 25m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:56 → SLC 20:26DL 887	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373	8h 42m	89%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	1h 16m Seattle	SEA 16:06 → PDX 17:12DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	8h 42m	93%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON